Friday, December 7, 2012
An update on The 2013 Los Angeles Mayors Race
According to the Los Angeles City Clerks Office, there are 8 qualified candidates who will be on the ballot for Mayor, with one more possibly being qualified. That means there will be a maximum of nine candidates, making this number of candidates a smaller number than in 2009, when a sitting Mayor was running for re-election. That is a bit of an oddity, if you think about it. It is highly likely that potential or prospective candidates may have been frightened away by the possibility of both Rick Caruso and Zev Yaroslavsky running for Mayor. However, both declined their opportunity to possibly take up residence in the Mayors office on Spring Street.
I'm not going to waste time talking about the unknown or underfunded candidates. They are not going to rise up and defeat a career politician who has been repeatedly elected by the voters of this city. It is a lesson I wish I had learned before running for Mayor myself in 2009.
There are four people who can be the next Mayor of Los Angeles.
1. ERIC GARCETTI
Eric Garcetti is a smooth, polished, career politician. He has a legacy name and a built-in constituency, as most of the voters in his 13th Council District will likely vote for him in the election. He has shown his poise and character over several years while serving as President of the City Council. He is calm and respectful of others at Council meetings, while some of the other blowhards on the Council are often seen losing their composure and shouting at various local gadflies and activists during contentious Council meetings. Garcetti has an intangible quality that is deadly with the voters....
It is difficult to find people in Los Angeles who hate Eric Garcetti.
Garcetti is so smooth and measured in his professional behavior. He tries his best to avoid offending anyone with his policies or decisions. It is very difficult to beat a politician like that. He is the overwhelming favorite right now. I don't see any way that he doesn't make the runoff.
Voter response in March: 33% of the vote
Odds to make May Runoff: 80%
2. WENDY GREUEL
"The Pixie", as I like to call her, is a much more dangerous opponent than anyone realizes. As I said in a previous blog post, "Wendy is very low-key about the way she sticks daggers in the backs of the other candidates. You almost don't notice her doing it."
She will, no doubt, be coming up with some surprise piece of information that cripples the appeal of other candidates to City voters. Don't count her out. If she gets one on one with Garcetti, the media will go nuts about possibly having a woman serve as Mayor. She is Garcettis biggest threat, and don't think that he isn't spending time on a game plan against her.
Voter response in March: 22% of the vote
Odds to make May Runoff: 66%
3. JAN PERRY
"The Hamburglar" has another built-in constituency with her 9th Council District voters. Perry is a bruiser from Cleveland who has no problem stepping on other peoples toes. Unlike Garcetti, it is fairly easy to locate political enemies of Jan Perry. City Attorney Carmen "Nuch" Trutanich threatened to throw her in jail over some of her shady dealings with corporate giant AEG. Perry will get a dominating percentage of the African-American voting block and might even win over some of the female voters who don't care for Wendy Greuel. But overall, Perry is not as popular among the Democratic voters of this city as either Garcetti or Greuel. She has a lot of work to do to catch them. Perry should have dropped down to the race for Controller and tried to win there. Her built-in constituency could have sent her to a June runoff for that spot.
Voter response in March: 19% of the vote
Odds to make May Runoff: 33%
4. KEVIN JAMES
I don't agree with Kevin James on every political issue, but of the four candidates, he is the only one I could consider voting for. He's not a Big Government Socialist like the other three candidates. Kevin will get a massive percentage of the Conservative/Republican voter base here in Los Angeles. The problem for Kevin is that the Republican percentage of the overall vote is not enough on its own for him to win or even make the runoff. It is most likely that the next Mayor of Los Angeles will be a liberal Democrat. That's just how this City rolls. Sickening, but true. I add a caveat that James is supposedly going to get support from a Republican super-pac for funding, but that money has yet to be seen. James is not as well-known as the other candidates, and he can take no comfort from the fact that this city has elected a repulsive degenerate like Antonio Villaraigosa... twice.
Voter response in March: 18% of the vote
Odds to make May Runoff: 20%