I have already written extensively about this subject, and to be quite honest, if you go back and check my previous blog post from over a year ago you will see that a lot of the analysis is still valid.
However, I wanted to make some updates.
Some players are gaining momentum, some are staying neutral, and some are losing steam.
GAINING MOMENTUM
Councilman Eric Garcetti recently announced that he is "looking at " a Mayoral run in 2013.
Translation: He's already in, barring unforseen circumstances.
Garcetti is still one of the top favorites, even though he was part of a City Council that put Los Angeles in jeopardy of bankruptcy. Garcetti is a skilled politician, exceedingly polite and good with people. While other Council Districts are often breaking down into near-riot situations, Garcettis District is usually calm and peaceful and supportive of their Council Member.
County Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky seems increasingly likely to seek the Mayors Office, and as a career politician here in Los Angeles, he has a long list of friends and supporters.
City Controller Wendy Greuel has some very strong political survival skills. She also has a unique style of dropping deadly information during campaign times and making others look incredibly bad or irresponsible. I have underestimated her. She is a growing threat to others for 2013.
STAYING NEUTRAL
Developer Rick Caruso made some noise before the 2009 Mayoral election and probably regrets not jumping in to that race. The 2013 race will be much more crowded and competitive. Caruso has made no announcements concerning 2013, and to be quite honest, I think he isn't too fond of the idea of undressing financially for the Ethics Department. I actually don't think he will run.
Former Inspector General Laura Chick. I initially didn't have Laura Chick in my rankings because she was busy being Inspector General, but new Governor Jerry Brown just threw her out of a job. She's tanned, rested, and ready. Why not give it a shot? She is well liked and well respected here in town.
Former NBA Star Magic Johnson. Magic has made some mention of running, and I think he would be competitive, but I really don't see him jumping into the race.
City Attorney Carmen "Nuch" Trutanich. I admit to being biased towards Nuch. I think he's one of the true fighters in this City. But he has shown more interest in being District Attorney than in being Mayor. That is unfortunate, because I think he would be a great candidate in 2013.
LOSING STEAM
2009 Mayoral Runner-up Walter Moore seems to have shown no interest in another shot at the office. As such, I am moving him down in the rankings.
LAUSD School Board Member Tamar Galatzan. I think Tamar is a very talented lady, but she is getting taken down in the rankings. She faces a bitter battle with Louis Pugliese for her LAUSD seat, and seems to be eyeing the Council District 2 seat whenever Paul Krekorian decides to vacate the spot and make his next backstabbing, self-aggrandizing career move.
Councilman Bernard Parks has recently had some of the political machinery in this town turn on him. Unions are supporting his opponent in March. Soulvine columnist Betty Pleasant will be happy to know that Parks is finished, politically, in this City.
Councilman Richard Alarcon. My happiest update ever.
"Not Applicable". Currently under indictment.
Odds (updated Jan 2011)
Garcetti 3-1
Yaroslavsky 6-1
Caruso 8-1
Chick 8-1
Johnson 10-1
Greuel 10-1
Trutanich 12-1
Hertzberg 15-1
Moore 20-1
La Bonge 25-1
Krekorian 30-1
Padilla 40-1
Perry 70-1
Galatzan 80-1
Parks 300-1
Alarcon N/A (in custody in 2013)
