Let me start off by saying that I think the American public is going to be very turned off by the Obama Administration by the time 2012 rolls around. High taxes, high unemployment and economic recession are usually a surefire way to get voted out of office. I think Barack Obama was only elected because voters in America were suffering from fatigue of the War in Iraq and blamed that on George W. Bush. I believe that President Barack Obama is probably the most dangerous and destructive President we have ever had. I believe voters will realize the mistake of electing a man who had no leadership experience whatsoever.
He has shown a repeated willingness to violate our Constitution.
He seems to be disinterested in fighting wars and defending our nation.
He has hired absolute and total lunatics like Van Jones and Cass Sunstein to be part of his administration.
Voters are watching and taking notes.
Having said that, let's get to the breakdown...
SARAH PALINThe former Governor of Alaska has become a best-selling author with her new book "Going Rogue". The former Republican nominee for Vice President in 2008 has become the one true rock star of the Republican Party. She draws huge crowds and is mobbed everywhere she goes. She seems to have a huge lead on other candidates when it comes to obtaining the GOP Nomination for President in 2012. However, 2012 is still along way off and many things could change by then. But if she chooses to run...and I think she will...she will have a huge head start on other candidates by the fact that she continually draws massive amounts of the national media attention .
The big question about Sarah Palin has never been about about her appeal. That has always been obvious. She has an undeniable charisma that attracts people. She has won most of the elections she has ever been involved in. Many people from what the media dismissively refer to as "flyover states" see a lot of themselves in Sarah Palin. A hard working, tough, athletic girl from a small town who worked her way up the ladder to her phenomenal level of current success. She has huge pockets of support from the Evangelical voters because of her openness about her Christian faith. When it comes to the Right-To-Life voters.... Sarah Palin walks on water. She can do no wrong in their eyes because she doesn't just talk the talk...she walked the walk. Sarah Palin chose to have a child that she knew would have Down's Syndrome. There can be no stronger evidence of a commitment to life than that. If Sarah runs in 2012, she will have committed armies of Evangelicals and Right-To-Life activists marching around doing volunteer work for her campaign.
No, the big question about Sarah Palin has always been... can she win the election in 2012?
There are some in the GOP who are afraid of Sarah Palin. They are afraid she will obtain the nomination and then lose the election. I don't think Republican Party leaders need to worry about Sarah Palin. She has shown her Conservative beliefs and values and she has an undeniable appeal that the media and the left seem to fear.
She is quite genuine, and always expresses her love for this country, as opposed to Barack Obama, who often seems cool, detached, and uninterested in many American cultural issues.
If the country is in an economic shambles in 2012, many voters who voted for Obama will turn on him and throw him out. The GOP candidate will win regardless of who it is. I think Sarah Palin would win big in 2012 if economic indicators are still poor here in the United States.
Palin is the big favorite right now. She already has huge blocks of GOP voters locked up.
ODDS
2-1
MITT ROMNEY
If there is one candidate who was running for 2012 from the first minutes after the election of 2008, it is Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney has been traveling, campaigning for other candidates, and raising money for others. He has been building connections and relationships for future endorsements. He has a certain amount of the GOP locked up behind him as the leading candidate of their choice. Right now, the battle is between him and Sarah Palin.
The best-selling book "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell is a book about the rapid cognition that human beings make in the blink of an eye. In the book they tested peoples perceptual ability to make instant decisions. For example... if you were to arrange a lineup of photos of the 2012 candidates and asked uninformed people from another country "Which one of these men is the leader of his country?"...most of them would probably instinctively pick Romney.
The guy looks like a President. He acts like a President. He seems like a perfect fit.
So why does the prospect of Mitt Romney bother me so much?
His Mormon faith is something that I think is a subject that puts people off.
Many people don't understand Mormonism. Even many other Christians don't get it.
However, I think Americans are flexible and could accept a Mormon as President.
His legacy as being a former liberal is what bothers me.
I'm a convert to Conservatism myself and would never criticize another person for having formerly been registered with the wrong political party (Democratic) like I was.
But when Romney was Governor of Massachusetts he signed legislation that allowed the State to subsidize abortion. This type of information doesn't sit well with the Conservatives.
One of my close friends insultingly calls Mitt Romney "Mr. 50 Dollar Abortion" because of his actions in Massachusetts. I am not sure he can overcome this stigma. But it is possible.
He is a hard driving man who wants the nomination. I don't discount him.
He is a contender.
ODDS
3-1
RICK PERRYOne of the favorites for 2012 is a candidate that is not seen in the top photo of this article and he is also one that very few media outlets are talking about. Texas Governor Rick Perry became Governor in 2000 when George W. Bush resigned to take the office of President. He won re-election in 2002 and 2006 and is the second-longest serving sitting Governor in the United States. He recently announced plans to run for a third term in 2010 and is a heavy favorite in that election.
Perry, to me, is a real threat to the Democrats in 2012.
He is a tough, no-nonsense Texan. He uses his veto power frequently.
He is very pro-life and Christian and Conservative. Very pro-business and against Washington meddling.
He made some vague comments that some interpreted as talking about Texas succeeding from the United States. He has made comments that make his opposition to gay marriage quite clear. He couldn't be a better fit for the right.
He has Texas in great shape financially...Texas has an 11 billion dollar budget surplus under his watch.
He will be between elections in 2012, so he could run with very little fallout from his fellow Texans.
You are reading it here first at TJR....
If Rick Perry runs in 2012, he will be the next President of the United States.
ODDS
3-1
DICK CHENEY
The former Vice-President broke with tradition in 2008 and did not choose to run for President after spending eight years in the VP slot in Washington. Some liberals liked to comment that Cheney "had already served" eight years at the top spot, referring to his behind-the-scenes advisory activities at The White House.
Cheney declined to run because he had finished what he set out to accomplish. He knew the left loves to portray him as "Darth Vader" ... among other things. He didn't think his candidacy was right for the country in 2008. But that is not to say he won't ever return. He just won't do it in 2012.
He said he's out. He's not changing his mind.
Not his style.
ODDS
100-1
MIKE HUCKABEE
The former Governor of Arkansas ran for the Republican Nomination for President in 2008 and did reasonably well, but could not stop John McCain from capturing that nomination. He did capture primary victories in several states and built a name for himself for future runs. Unfortunately, all his hard work may have been undone recently with the news that a former convict from Arkansas, who had his sentence commuted by Huckabee, was the one responsible for a rampage that left four Police Officers dead in Washington state. This issue becomes kind of a "Willie Horton" thing for Huckabee and he knows that his future political opponents won't hesitate to use it. The issue makes him look soft on crime.
It is a shame because there are many things to like about Huckabee. He was previously a Southern Baptist preacher and his skill at storytelling and his comfort level in front of crowds make him a very charismatic figure. I have been very impressed with his public speeches on several occasions. His runs for the Presidency may be over due to this recent tragedy. However, I think he makes a very, very good choice as a Vice-Presidential candidate, which is what many of the candidates end up running for anyway.
ODDS
15-1
NEWT GINGRICH
If the Republican Party really wanted to make Barack Obamas life a living hell for the next three years, they would just give Newt Gingrich a few million dollars and tell him to declare himself as a candidate now. Gingrich has a way of launching the most scathing and insulting attacks of any politician I know. He is clever with his words to the point of them almost being a deadly weapon. And he is not shy about using them, either.
The former Speaker of the House has Republican credentials to admire. He originated the "Contract With America" and got most of it accomplished. On the other hand, he has some social issues ( a few divorces) and a few other black marks on his record also. But I generally regard him as one of the toughest possible candidates for Obama to face because he is such a stark contrast in terms when compared to the current President. But I think he would be facing long odds to get to the general election.
ODDS
20-1
BOBBY JINDAL
The young Governor is very popular in Louisiana and will probably be easily re-elected in 2011. There has been a buzz building around him for sometime, but some of the air went out of the balloon when he was chosen by the Republican Party to be their counterpoint and issue their response to President Barack Obamas State of The Union Address.
Jindals speech was a bomb. It was not interesting and his delivery style lacked charisma.
There is no way he could get past Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney in 2012.
But that is not to say he couldn't get there someday.
He is only 38 years old. He has time.
ODDS
70-1
TIM PAWLENTY
The Governor of Minnesota was the popular choice to be John McCains Vice-Presidential pick in 2008, but instead McCain went with Sarah Palin to shake things up and generate some heat for his campaign. Pawlenty has been elected Governor of Minnesota twice, but both times were by razor-thin margins, so it is unclear if he has the type of popularity needed to pull off a national campaign. He is probably better off being a Vice-Presidential pick at this point.
ODDS
50-1
"THE FIELD"
There are a wide variety of other candidates that could come along as a surprise in 2012. Congressman Ron Paul has a devoted following. Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi is sometimes mentioned. One of my personal favorites, Senator John Thune of South Dakota, would be a great choice, but he is little known outside of South Dakota. Some have even mentioned General David Petraeus as an option. Many things can happen between now and 2012. Some careers will rise and others will fall. But right now Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney have a big lead on the others. That is not to say that lead is insurmountable. But it looks pretty good right now.
ODDS
100-1
