Monday, March 14, 2011

Why a Palin Presidency is possible

There are many geniuses out there in the political landscape that continue to harp on the fact that Sarah Palin is "unelectable" in the Presidential election of 2012. The mainstream media bangs the drum of Palin-hating just about as hard you could possibly hit it. Google "Sarah Palin" and "unelectable" and you get over 280,000 hits.

Sarah Palin seems to have realized the problem herself and has been addressing recent rallies by stating that "People said Reagan was unelectable in 1980." A good counter-measure by her.

Luckily, all this media speculation doesn't mean much.

In fact, they are all wrong.

Sarah Palin can be elected President of the United States if things break her way.

Current speculation means nothing.

Back in 2006, everyone was predicting the fight for the White House in 2008 would be Hillary Clinton against Rudy Giuliani. Whoops...

Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves.

To be honest, Sarah Palin does have some strong negative factors working against her.

She has been ridiculed for not being "smart enough" or having had an elite college education.
Her foreign policy chops are seen as weak because she had never been issued a passport or even left the country up until just a couple of years ago. Her quitting her job as Governor of Alaska didn't sit right with many voters and political pundits.

The exaggerated characterizations of her by comedians, including "Saturday Night Live's" Tina Fey, have done serious damage to her reputation. In fact, many voters often quote Tina Feys lines of comedy dialogue as Sarah Palins word-for-word quotes... an unfortunate side-effect of that impersonation of her.

However, for the all the negatives hurled at Palin, the woman seems remarkably resilient.

There are several reasons why Sarah Palin can still be elected President of The United States in 2012.

1. Sarah Palin is the only "rock star" in the GOP field.

Indeed, Palin is such a big draw that most places can't handle her crowd-drawing capacity. She was a big embarrassment for the McCain campaign in 2008 -- because she regularly outdrew McCain crowds when she was campaigning without him. They changed that policy immediately in deference to the power of her charisma. Mitch Daniels or Rick Santorum would probably have to get themselves arrested in order to surpass Sarah in the headlines for even a few days. In fact, Sarah has such a hold on the media that she creates her own specific gravity. Every other potential GOP candidate has to be weighed against her. Can they even get any attention when a mesmerized and antagonistic media refuses to focus their attention on anyone else?

2. Sarah Palin has a built-in "core" constituency that will help her win primaries.

How many people are going to get excited about volunteering to go hike through snowy conditions in Iowa and New Hampshire in January and February of 2012? Does the thought of Tim Pawlenty get your heart racing? Yeah.... me neither.

Some of those people volunteering to trudge through the Iowa snow will be the Right-To-Life organizations. For them, no other candidate will do. Sarah Palin, to them, walks on water. In a confusing world where it is sometimes difficult to differentiate your friends from your enemies, it can be even harder to identify the true intentions of the professional shape-shifting politician. For the Right-To-Life organizations, Sarah Palin represents clarity and truth. She doesn't just talk the talk, she walks the walk.
With their support, Sarah eliminates most of the other candidates from the discussion.
If and when Sarah declares as a candidate, many others will drop out or decline to run.

Sarah is also popular with members of the military, and pro-gun organizations.
She only needs to get about 35-40% of the vote to win the first two primaries.
If she does that, it's over early.

3. Sarah Palin is the only candidate "acting" Presidential right now.

Sarahs powerful media presence has given her the unprecedented ability to launch blistering attacks on the failed policies of Barack Obama. In fact, her Facebook posts and Twitter "tweets" often become media stories on their own. No other candidate is doing, or can do, this. While Sarah is out there running laps around the other candidates and going full throttle against Barack Obama, some other candidates are waiting in the locker room hoping she gets into a big messy (political) car wreck on the way to the nomination. And yes, I'm talking about Mitt Romney...

4. Palin has an "everyman" quality to her that appeals to voters.

In the 2012 election, if Sarah Palin is fortunate enough to be the GOP nominee, she will be able to show a shocking level of difference between her ability to empathize with the common man as opposed to Barack Obama. Sarah likes to go hunting. She enjoyed watching her daughter dance and voted for her on "Dancing With The Stars". Sarah can laugh at herself about writing crib notes on her hand. Even though the voting public has a negative impression of her, they might soften that stance with time. I know that Republican voters who don't support her in the primaries will most likely support her in the general election.

5. Barack Obama is facing an ugly election situation in 2012.

The Republican avalanche in 2010 sent a message that Americans opposed Obamas policies and spending habits. The outlook for 2012 does not look any better. An economy crippled by unemployment will not reward Obama for his failed "stimulus" program, most of which was just cleverly disguised embezzlement.
If gas prices go over $5 a gallon, Obama will be sunk. He halted drilling in the Gulf, helping to create the current crisis.

Suddenly, voters might take a second look at the charming lady who promises to lower gas prices by drilling for oil anywhere and everywhere we can find it.