As of today -- May 7th, 2012 -- I remain fairly convinced that Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of The United States. Most of my readers know that I am not a fan of Romney, but I still predict his success in the fall election. For several simple reasons...
1) Geographic/Demographic shifts: Many people have moved to the warmer weather Red States, and the changing Census data gives the Republicans about 6-10 more electoral votes to start with. And Romney has already won about 22 states before the first vote has been cast. That is a big advantage.
2) Obama is doing a terrible job of running the country: 5 trillion in new debt and a staggeringly low number of people who actually have a job is usually enough of a reason to get an incumbent tossed out of office. Actually, come to think of it, this should be reason number 1.
3) Romney can play himself up as a business turnaround specialist: People who are unemployed are going to be looking for someone who can create a better business environment that will produce growth -- and REAL jobs. Not government make-work.
Now, this isn't to say that things couldn't change. If gasoline prices dropped about $2, Obama would get a bump from that. If unemployment dropped two points by election time, Obama might breeze back into office. Romney could make some type of horrible gaffe on the campaign trail and alienate voters in swing states. Anything is possible.
But right now, looking at Obamas poor approval ratings and the overall poor state of the economy, Obama is in real trouble heading into this fall election. His fundraising really shows it. This "billion dollar" war chest he was supposed to have is never going to materialize. In 2008, electrified voters wanted to be part of something historic. In 2012, it seems that the thrill is gone.
