Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Super Tuesday Predictions

GOP Primaries are already underway today as I write this. Virginia opened their polls at 6 a.m. -- which is 3 a.m. Los Angeles time.

A State-by-State breakdown:


Romney and Santorum have the best chances here. I think Romney ekes this one out by a small margin. But with the proportional allotment, they get about the same amount of delegates.


A native son, Gingrich wins big in Georgia. Unfortunately, it will be his only win of the night and the last hurrah of his campaign.


Idaho is right next to Utah and also shares a large Mormon population. Romney wins it easily.


As the former Governor there, Romney wins in a blowout.


My upset special. There are a lot of churchgoers in North Dakota. I think Santorum wins here...although the delegate total is small, so it doesn't change the game too much.


This one is the big enchilada. Ohio is a battleground state in the general election, and candidates need to show that they have support here. I suspect Romney might get by Santorum by the tiniest margin here, like 33% - 32%... but I am hoping for a Santorum win. A win by Santorum really damages Romneys reputation as the "inevitable" nominee. And when it comes right down to it...a win is a win. If Santorum wins, it keeps all the campaigns rolling. If Romney wins, he starts to get that "winners traction" and he starts to pull away from everyone else from here on out.


A deeply red state that deeply distrusts Romney. Santorum wins here in a blowout.


Another deeply red state that deeply mistrusts Romney. Santorum wins here comfortably.


A neighboring state to Mitt Romneys Massachusetts. Romney wins here easily.


Because of the very stringent (and unnecessary) ballot regulations in Virginia, only two candidates are on the ballot: Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. It's Ron Pauls best chance ever to win a primary....and it is not going to happen. Ron Paul is going to get blown out here. Romney wins 50%- 25% with another 25% voting for uncommitted. The Virginia primary effectively ends all discussion of Ron Paul as a candidate in 2012. Paul will make it to Tampa with a small number of delegates, but he might not get a featured speaking slot.