Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Florida Primary underway

Voters are marching to the polls today in the GOP Primary in Florida.

Most experts and news channels predict a Romney victory, as he has spent the most money and run the most television ads. However, I think he will win by a very small margin because he is unloved by Conservatives.

I predict a 6-8 point win by Romney. This will springboard him back into the lead.

Romney will then win Nevada and start to be seen as "inevitable" again.

Until Super Tuesday when Romney gets his butt kicked by Gingrich all across the Deep South.

Then, it is a battle royale until the convention.

Monday, January 30, 2012

Congressman Allen West to Obama & Pelosi: "Get the hell out!"

Florida Congressman Allen West throws down the gauntlet.

Democrats in Florida are trying to re-district him out of his seat.

He doesn't sound too worried about them.

Sunday, January 29, 2012

This Is What A President Sounds Like

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida gives the best possible reply to Barack Obamas State of The Union speech.

It was a big mistake for the GOP to let this guy stay out of the 2012 mix. If he had run, I think he would have become almost like our own John Kennedy for the GOP. He would have massive swarms of followers.

He would be pulling away from Romney and Gingrich right now, because he doesn't have their political baggage.

The fact that he is the number one name on every political list of VP candidates should tell you something.

Maybe we have the wrong guy at the top of the ticket.

Saturday, January 28, 2012

Advantage, Romney

A few days ago when Newt Gingrich routed Mitt Romney in the South Carolina primary, I thought it was the turning point in the campaign. Now, I'm not so sure.

Gingrich had an uncharacteristically poor performance in the Florida CNN Debate, and he may tumble a bit. I actually think Romney will win Florida because of his massive advertising budget there.

It certainly didn't help Gingrich when several GOP leaders came out and bashed him in public, including former nominee Bob Dole.

I still think Gingrich can fire up the base in a way that Romney never will.

But I see a clear path to the nomination for Romney if he continues to do well. He made the ballot in all 50 states, whereas Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum missed a few ballot deadlines or requirements.

Romney may not get to the convention with the necessary delegates, because Gingrich and Ron Paul will hound him all the way to Tampa. But if he gets there with a plurality, there will be pressure on the others to step aside.

I'm predicting a 6 to 7 point win for Romney in Florida, and a big win for him in Nevada.

That should slow down Newts momentum coming out of South Carolina.

Romney is not out of danger yet, but he is looking like he's in the best position so far.

Friday, January 27, 2012

Liberals incensed at Arizona Governor

You had to expect this.

The liberal media went ballistic yesterday after Arizona Governor Jan Brewer had a meeting with Barack Obama on an airport tarmac. Brewer delivered a hand written letter welcoming him to Arizona and bragging about the recovery in Arizona.

Photographers caught a photo of Brewer addressing the President that was probably misinterpreted. It appears as though Brewer is wagging her finger in Obamas face and chewing him out, but more likely it was just Brewer caught in the middle of a hand gesture.

Liberals, as is their wont, immediately assumed grievous racism and held table panel discussions on all the liberal media talk shows. They were overly pious as they described the hateful and hurtful actions of Governor Brewer.

It is true that there seems to be no love lost between Brewer and Obama....but the media probably overplayed this to stir up controversy. If Brewer was truly that confrontational, Obama could have simply skipped meeting with her.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Destroying Romney

The last few weeks haven't been too kind to me. I go to Pasadena to watch my beloved Badgers get beat by Oregon. Then as a new part-owner of the Green Bay Packers, I travel home to Green Bay to see them lay an egg in the playoffs after a 15-1 season.

While at home in Green Bay, my top choice for 2012, Governor Rick Perry of Texas, drops out of the race. Perry never recovered from some stumbles in the debates.... and it cost him the White House.

At least one thing seems to be working out for me, though.

Newt Gingrich is wrecking Mitt Romney. Absolutely destroying him.

Not that I'm a fan of Gingrich, but at least Gingrich has done a few Conservative things in his life and held the line against Socialism when he was working as Speaker of The House.

Romney was wandering around in squishy liberal-land when serving as Governor of Massachusetts.

Mark my words... Gingrich will win big in Florida and rout Romney the rest of the way.

Gingrich is far from perfect, but he can gut Romney like a fish.

Romney won't even say mean things about Obama.
That is not the mood of the voters this year.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

The Iron Lady

As a member of the Screen Actors Guild, I've been getting a lot of screeners mailed to me in recent weeks. The different studios are promoting their films in return for possible votes in the SAG Awards.

Great variety I've been getting in the mail ...The Artist, Moneyball, The Help, Bridesmaids. All films I hadn't gotten around to seeing in theaters.

Last night I watched a copy of "The Iron Lady" with Meryl Streep, which tells the story of how Margaret Thatcher rose through the ranks of the British Conservative Party to become the United Kingdoms first female Prime Minister, and one of the most powerful political leaders ever to take charge of any country in the world.

Streep is amazing and clearly did a lot of work for this role. The other ladies who are contending for Best Actress at the Oscars this year don't need to bother writing a speech.
Streep is a lock.

The film was inspirational, as I admire Thatchers tenacity, but one aspect I didn't like was its focus on her later years when she started losing her memory and had to be "handled" by officials assigned to care for her.

Overall, though....it was good work and will win many, many awards for Streep.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Forget Newt, Obama is the one in trouble

One of the chilling facts about the South Carolina Primary results for Democratic Party activists is that people turned out in large numbers. And they didn't turn out in large numbers because they were happy.

In fact, the excess turnout in South Carolina dwarfed the vote totals from Iowa and New Hampshire. South Carolina is a larger state and may be more representative of what is actually going on in the country as a whole.

Voters are unhappy about high unemployment, high gas prices, staggering foreclosure numbers, and the breakneck speed of the runaway national debt.

I find it funny that Democrats talk about Obama getting re-elected. I think he could get routed. He might lose 40 states.

Don't worry about Newt Gingrich...he'll be just fine.

Obama is the problem. He always has been.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Giffords resignation long overdue

Arizona Congresswoman Gabby Giffords will resign her position this week, causing a special election in Arizona to fill her seat. In my opinion, her actions are long overdue.

Giffords was badly injured in an assassination attempt in Arizona a year ago. A deranged gunman with mental issues also killed several others in that shooting. Giffords took a bullet that traveled through the left side of her brain. She is extremely lucky to even be alive.

The left side of the brain is the part that controls speech and communication. Giffords was left severely impaired, similar to a stroke victim. It was clear to everyone involved that Giffords would never be the same again. She could not read or understand the complex legislation she would be required to cover in her job. She could not give complex speeches in order to defend her votes nor could she vocally encourage others to support her.

If she had been an airlines pilot, there is no way they would ever let her fly again. If she had been a police officer or race car driver...again...she would be unemployed for life.

But because she was a Congresswoman... which is basically office work (much of it done by staffers) she was allowed to continue on for an entire year.

Voters had sympathy for her situation, and I don't believe they would have forced her out until the next election. However, at that point, her mental impairment would become an issue that her fall opponent would have to discuss. Nobody wanted to see that. So Giffords is stepping down.

I think it is the right thing to do. I just think it should have happened sooner.

When Giffords and her staff realized how badly she had been harmed, she should have stepped down immediately. The job of Congressional Representative is bigger than the person serving it. There had been others who had served Arizonas 8th District in the past, and there will be many fine other Representatives serving it after Gabby Giffords is gone.

Having the voters of Arizonas 8th District adequately represented is what is important here.

Sympathy for Giffords needs to be set aside in the greater pursuit of good governance.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

A Deal With The Devil

Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina GOP Primary last night. He won big, flattening Mitt Romney, who had been leading in the polls there for weeks.

How did he do it?

For Newt, it has always been about the debates. Newt is mentally sharper than most of the other candidates, and he knows his material well. When John King lobbed him a softball to open the debate the other day, Newt crushed a bases-loaded grand slam home run. He denounced the media for digging around in his failed marriage. The audience stood and applauded.

I don't think they were applauding his adultery, but rather the fact that voters had heard enough about that issue and Gingrich was bringing out the "Angry Newt" that is so entertaining to voters.

This man - who was down and out of the race after his Greek cruise with Callista last summer - is now poised in prime position to win the GOP Nomination. Since 1980, every winner of the South Carolina GOP Primary has gone on to be the party nominee. Mitt Romney desperately needs Gingrich to self-destruct in Florida, because a Gingrich win there will only accelerate his eventual victory.

The problem with Romney is that he is unloved by Conservatives who don't trust his former liberal rantings while serving as Governor of Massachusetts. Newt Gingrich, on the other hand, is not the GOP dream candidate by any means. Like I said in a blog post the other day, Newt Gingrich is a prick. He has a haters heart. He is mean-spirited and ill-tempered. He has explosive diva-like tantrums. Not exactly what you look for in your party flag-bearer.

However, Newt has a contempt for Barack Obama that you can almost taste. It reflects deep yearnings by party faithful to destroy Obama and remove all his conspirators from Washington. This is what drives voters to Newt. He hates Obama as much as they do.

Certainly, making Newt Gingrich the GOP nominee is like striking a deal with the devil.

But if the prize is an Obama-free America, then GOP primary voters seem to be willing to pay that price.

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Americas Last Chance

South Carolina voters have practically been given temporary stewardship of Americas future.

If they vote for Romney, the GOP will have a general election candidate who is very liberal and not much different than Barack Obama.

If they can give victory to Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul or Rick Santorum, then the campaign continues.

Godspeed, Palmetto State Voters.

You might be Americas last chance.

Friday, January 20, 2012

Newt Gingrich is a prick

I watched the sensational moment above last night and it dawned on me why so many Republican voters want Newt Gingrich to be the GOP Nominee in 2012.

Newt Gingrich is a prick.

And I say that with all the respect due of a man who might eventually become the nations 45th President.

Politics is not for the faint of heart. Leaders have to be willing to hurt the feelings of their voters. Leaders have to fire people. Ruin careers. Shatter hopes and dreams. Tell people they are not getting what they desperately want. Gingrich can do these things in his sleep.

Newt Gingrich is clearly the meanest, nastiest person the GOP could ever run against Barack Obama. His intensity level is off the charts. He holds lifelong grudges. He has a haters heart, and some voters seem to like that about him.

There is no doubt that Gingrich would run Obama through a meat grinder in the debates, and many GOP voters are practically salivating at the possibility of seeing that happen.

Me? Not so much.

I'll give Newt Gingrich credit for doing some Conservative things back in the 90's. He helped the Republicans re-take the House, which was huge. And he also seems to be willing to eliminate government programs like Obamacare.

My reasons for my mild dislike of Gingrich have to do with his love of Big Government policies and solutions. And his weakness and nutty policies towards illegal immigration. (Really, Newt!?! We can't deport 12 million illegals, but we can drag them, Gestapo-like, in front of some bizarre "community standards" board to decide their fate? Really Newt!?! Really?)

My interest in his personal life is non-existent.

I fully acknowledge his failings in his marriages and his infidelity. Relationships are tricky things and anybody can have a relationship that doesn't work out. I don't blame anyone for that.

However, I do question the integrity of a person who can't be honest with their spouse.

Could Newt Gingrich do the job of being President of The United States?

Absolutely. I have no doubts about his intelligence or capabilities to perform the job.

I just don't like the idea that while serving as our President, I could never trust that guy, or turn my back on him for five minutes.

I have already had that feeling for three years now.

I don't need it for four more years.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

What?! Perry dropping out?!

There are rumors flying around the internet this morning that Texas Governor Rick Perry is going to drop out of the GOP Presidential race. They even hint that Perry will endorse the bomb-throwing diva and Big Government lover Newt Gingrich.

I hope to God this is not true.
This is a nightmare!

I will be watching CNN in about 15 minutes to figure out where this is going.

Back soon with an update.


Oh my God, it's true...

We are now facing Obamageddon in 2012.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Jon Huntsman: Heretic


Did you hear the sound of a pin dropping?

Oh, yeah. That was the sound of former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman dropping out of the Presidential race. It was a news item so unimportant that nobody noticed.

Huntsman had zero chance of getting the GOP Presidential Nomination, anyway.

Why, you ask? Because Huntsman was guilty of ideological heresy. He said crazy things.

During one of the debates, he had the unmitigated gall to say "I believe in global warming and evolution...call me crazy." GOP Primary voters did exactly that, as Huntsman never went above the single digits in most polls, and finished a distant third in New Hampshire after being camped out there for nearly a year.

He believed in things that you cannot believe in if you expect Republican voters to vote for you. Most Republican don't believe in global warming and many question the theory of evolution.

Huntsman acted like both theories were unquestionable fact. He may as well have been a Democrat.

Also, the fact that he was working with Barack Obama in a Democratic Administration didn't sit well with primary voters. Huntsman was not trusted, and now he is gone.

Huntsman has chosen to endorse the Massachusetts Moderate Mitt Romney as his pick for 2012.

Wow. What a surprise.

The moderate Mormon supporting the other moderate Mormon in the race. Who could ever have seen that coming?

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

South Carolina must stop "The Massachusetts Moderate"

The voters of South Carolina will have a disproportionate say in who becomes our next President. If they do not deliver their Conservative votes en masse to a solid candidate, then Mitt Romney will be celebrating election night and he will probably coast to the GOP nomination.

I am asking the voters in South Carolina to do the right thing.

Give all your votes to Perry. Or even to Gingrich or Santorum.
But please, for the love of God, stop that Massachusetts Moderate!

Romney is "Obama-lite".

Less spending than pure Socialism, but with all the Freedom-destruction and government bureaucracy you can handle.

Monday, January 16, 2012

Dark days in Titletown

The Green Bay Packers were defeated by the New York Giants yesterday in their NFC Divisional playoff game. Soundly defeated. At one point in the fourth quarter, the Giants were up by three scores.

Fans at Lambeau Field were left scratching their heads and wondering....how could this happen?

Well, simply put, the Packers played poorly. Fumbles, interceptions. Dropped passes and missed assignments. The team that went 15-1 in the regular season and looked like they were headed for Super Bowl 46 will instead watch that game on television.

I had a great seat for the game. Third row of the Lambeau Leap section.

Unfortunately, there were no visitors.

Friday, January 13, 2012

The Jennerjahn Report headed to Green Bay, Wisconsin

Blogging at The Jennerjahn Report might be somewhat limited for the next week or so.

I'm heading to LAX this morning for a flight back to the Midwest.

My plan is to be at the playoff game on Sunday at Lambeau Field between the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers.

Not sure what type of time I will have for blogging while vacationing with relatives.

There may be some posts, but they might not be daily.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Pop quiz for Congressional District 28

Here is a Pop quiz for voters in Congressional District 28...

In the above photo:

1) Which one of these people is a Freedom-Hating Liberal?

2) Which one of these people is a Budget-Destroying Socialist?

Take your time.

This one is a bit tricky.

You could get it wrong, but actually end up being correct. If that helps.

Answer: The one on the left is Sunland Tujunga strongman Joe Barrett, who used threats and intimidation to stop a corporation from building a profitable, job-creating business in his neighborhood. Joe Barrett is the Freedom-Hating Liberal.

The one on the right is Democratic Congressman Adam Schiff, who has been an accomplice to the crimes of Barack Obama in aiding and abetting the looting of the U.S. Treasury, creating 3 trillion dollars in debt in three years, and helping to destroy the value of US currency. Adam Schiff is the Budget-Destroying Socialist.

"When Mitt Romney came to town"

Above you can find parts 1 and 2 of the scorching new documentary about Mitt Romney entitled "When Mitt Romney came to town".

The effect of this short movie is devastating. It portrays Mitt Romney as a Corporate Raider who attacked American businesses and made a profit out of putting them out of business.

Some of the facts are indisputable. These people who lost their companies and their jobs due to Bain Capital are not mistaken about who was involved.

This is why Mitt Romney cannot be the GOP nominee in 2012. If Obama and the Democrats can accurately portray him as a villain, then the election is lost before it begins.

I'm praying that the people of South Carolina have the common sense to vote for any one of the other candidates but Romney.

Romney wins New Hampshire GOP Primary

In a result that came as a surprise to no one, Mitt Romney won the GOP Presidential Primary held in New Hampshire last night. Some of the southern populated counties in New Hampshire are basically regarded as suburbs of Boston, Massachusetts...where Mitt Romney used to be Governor. It was about as close to a home field advantage as you can get.

Moderates and liberals all over New England streamed home to the polls to vote for one of their own. It was a very dark night for Conservatives. Myself included.

I see very few positives from this result.

The GOP is now probably going to have Romney as our candidate. Unless somebody can beat him in South Carolina....which I put at only a 50% chance...Romney will win there and in Florida after that and then the race will be over.

Romney is the best financed of the candidates. He has been running for six years and has a certain polished smoothness that comes with doing this for so long. He makes few mistakes. Maybe he can appeal to Independents. Maybe. I don't know.

I find it very difficult to accept that the father of Obamacare -- Mr. $50 abortion -- Mitt Romney...is going to be the GOP nominee for President.

One tiny side benefit is that Romney could beat Obama in New Hampshire. Sure, it is only 4 Electoral College votes, but taking those away from Obama and giving them to Romney creates a 8 vote swing. Very damaging to Obamas chances. Romneys Mormon faith would also position him to win Nevada, which has a large Mormon voter contingent.

Right now, Romney has a 80% chance of being the GOP Nominee. Somebody else would have to catch fire in a hurry to beat him.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Mitt Romney is Gordon Gekko

Opponents of GOP Presidential candidate Mitt Romney have found his Achilles heel. It is a weak point so devastating that it probably precludes him from being the GOP nominee in 2012. They have found their narrative. Their sound bite.

Mitt Romney is Gordon Gekko.

As CEO of Bain Capital, Romney oversaw the dismantling of American companies and ended up throwing thousands of Americans out of their jobs. In a country that voted for Barack Obama in 2008, this is not a narrative that will win battleground states in the 2012 election.

Mitt Romney cannot be the nominee in 2012, because these attacks are too lethal to his chances in the general election. Republicans need to choose another candidate...and fast.

Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, Perry, and Huntsman don't have these poisonous facts about Bain Capital on their resumés.

As an aside...I'm not being unfair to Romney. I fully support capitalism and the opportunities it provides. But closing American companies and raiding their pension funds is a vile way to get rich. And voters will remember that fact on election day.

It is probably too late to stop New Hampshire, but South Carolina has two weeks to choose a new frontrunner for the GOP in 2012.

Godspeed, Palmetto State!

Monday, January 9, 2012

Our incompetent elected officials

The photo above is, unfortunately, a photo of my Congressman.

Xavier Becerra.

A pure Communist with a heart full of hate.

Unfortunately, as one of his serfs, I am often at the whim of his decisions.

I emailed the Congressmans office and told him I wanted the official permission required to visit the White House when I am in Washington four weeks from now. February 9th or 10th.

That was five months ago. No word from him or his staff.

Now, being that my district is in urban LA and about 90% of the people here have no plans to visit Washington at any time whatsoever, I assume his office isn't overloaded with this type of request. However, I am quite certain that his office is filled with incompetent bureaucrats looking for a government teat to suckle at. I am sure the high salaries and excessive pensions in his office motivate the staff to provide exactly the non-existent customer service they currently provide.

I suppose it didn't help me to write blog posts like this about Becerra.
But do I really deserve to be blackballed just because I am a Republican voter in his highly Democratic district? I guess he and his staff think so.

I did not think it would ever be possible to locate an elected official as worthless as Karen Bass, but Becerra is making things interesting, to say the least.

I'm also upset at Antonio Villaraigosa, who took dirty laundered money in his 2009 re-election campaign and has refused to return that money. I called and asked his staff for answers... no response for months now.

Same thing for the Ethics Department. I asked them for answers about the laundered money. They didn't have any answers.

And of course, we have as the final act, The Dark Lord.

I emailed Councilman Krekorians office over one year ago. I'm starting to think I'm not going to get a response.

But hey, when you write blog posts like this one... you get yourself blackballed from a lot of political graft and gift-giving that goes on in this corrupt city.

Sunday, January 8, 2012

New Hampshire Debate

Saturdays New Hampshire Debate was, by far, the worst debate so far in this 2012 campaign.

Candidates bumbled around wasting time talking about contraception and who had actually served in the military.

The main goal -- which was for all the other candidates to team up and stop Romney -- didn't happen. Romney got treated fairly lightly by the moderators and the other candidates.

George Stephanopoulos asked an idiotic question about banning contraception. It didn't go over very well with the candidates or with the audience.

Ron Paul defended calling Gingrich a "chickenhawk" for refusing to do military service while wanting to send others off to war. Gingrich tried to excuse himself by saying he was married and had children. Paul responded with the biggest blow of the night by saying the he also was married with children when he was drafted, and he went and served.

My candidate, Rick Perry, did better in this debate than in most of the others. He was getting ignored so badly that at one point he just jumped in and started talking. Good for him. He won't win New Hampshire, but he is steadying the ship for South Carolina.

Rick Santorum gave some interesting answers, but nothing that moved him up in the polls.

Gingrich gave a scathing review of the bias of the Obama Administration against the Catholic Church. It was a topic nobody had covered in the campaign. It worked well for him.

Near the end, Huntsman made some type of wisecrack in Mandarin Chinese.
That, along with his Kurt Cobain jokes is why his campaign is a train wreck and he will be dropping out of the race after he gets pummeled in South Carolina.

In the end, Romney looked smooth and Presidential. He refused to get into the gutter and get dirty. He will win New Hampshire and take a big lead on the others heading to South Carolina.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

¡Alarcon 2012! The crime spree continues...

Sometimes, things happen in the Los Angeles political game that are difficult to wrap your head around. Other times, things are fairly predictable.

The photo above is of City Councilman Richard Alarcon on the steps of the Criminal Courts Building after being indicted on over 30 charges of voter fraud.

So, of course....the next natural step for Alarcon would be... resigning in disgrace, or fleeing the country with his ill-gotten gains...right?

No way! It's re-election time, baby!

Alarcon has filed papers with the County Clerk to run for the State Assembly seat he bailed out on years ago. Alarcon is counting on the stupidity of the voters in the 39th Assembly District. He figures...hey....they were dumb enough to vote for him before... well... why not one more time?

In way, you have to admire the chutzpah.

Few people in the world are this arrogant.

I have an intense dislike of Alarcon, based on his pathological dishonesty and his tendency to fill city positions with talentless relatives.

I was joyous over his indictment last year, but have been bitterly disappointed by his failure to serve a single minute of time behind bars. I've also been disappointed in the voters of the 7th District failing to recall him or demand his immediate resignation.

If they truly are that dumb, maybe Richard Alarcon will be able to continue his crime spree at taxpayer expense.

Friday, January 6, 2012

How Rick Perry can win South Carolina

1. Forget about Iowa. Iowa tends to vote for strong anti-abortion candidates. But they couldn't get Mike Huckabee into the White House and they probably won't get Rick Santorum there, either. Let it go. Move on...quickly.

2. Start traveling and spending money in South Carolina. It is crucial to the Perry campaign to finish near the top in South Carolina. A bus tour is required.

3. Appeal to South Carolinians as an authentic Southerner. Paint the others as Northern liberals. Big government meddlers.

4. Talk up the 10th Amendment. Remember that this is where the Civil War started and many Southerners still hold a residual grudge over an overbearing and oppressive Federal Government.

5. Get some military commanders to back your campaign and put them in TV ads. South Carolina is loaded with military and ex-military. Talk up the Commander-in-Chief angle of the Presidency. Mention how the others might not be ready.

6. Remind South Carolina voters of Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum voting for and supporting massive government spending while in office. Throw around the phrase "Romneycare" a few times.

7. Forget about the Ron Paul voters. You weren't going to get them anyway, but neither were any of the others.

8. Get some of the other big name Southern Governors out on the campaign trail for you.

9. Raise more money. Santorum and Gingrich are almost broke.

10. Don't quit. Sweat it out. Grind out the days. Outlast Gingrich and Santorum to become the only "Anti-Romney" left. And you will win.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Rick Santorum teaches Christine Essel a lesson

Retail Politics.

That's how Rick Santorum won the Iowa Caucus.

(Well, technically he didn't win, but he made it a statistical tie with front-runner Mitt Romney.)

Santorum spent months in Iowa, going to small gatherings and civic functions and giving speeches to small crowds.

My preferred candidate, Governor Rick Perry of Texas, tried to do a drive-by on Iowa. He tried to use his big money to win the election. He spent millions on TV ads. It didn't work.

In the end, the voters preferred the man they had seen in person repeatedly for months at various local social functions. A backyard barbeque. A softball game. Rick Santorum was there. Shaking hands. Smiling. Charming people face to face. And it worked.

Santorum is now one of the top three candidates for the GOP nomination. The winner of the nomination has a decent chance to defeat Barack Obama in 2012.

Rick Perry ended up spending over $4 million dollars in Iowa. It worked out to about $400 per vote. That is mind blowing.

We had a situation here in Los Angeles where a lady named Christine Essel was running for City Council. She had connections and money, as she was a former executive at Paramount Pictures. She ended up spending over a million dollars running for this city council seat, and she lost.

My friends and I have often theorized that if Christine had spent all her time knocking on doors and shaking hands, she would have won. She is a charming lady with a bubbly personality. She could have routed Paul Krekorian.

Instead, she listened to bad advice and sent 157 mailers to every household, which ended up pissing people off. She ended up spending about $80 per vote received. At the time I joked that she would have done better if she had just walked about Council District 2 handing out $100 bills.

Santorum spent about $30,000 of his own money in Iowa....working out to about $1 per vote.

He beat Rick Perry, who saturated the airwaves with TV ads.

Rick Perry could also have walked around Iowa handing out $100 bills and he would have done better in the election.

But both Rick Perry and Christine Essel could learn a lesson from Rick Santorum. Sometimes it is the personal touch that counts in politics.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Surveying the wreckage after Iowa

Headline of the day: Mitt Romney wins Iowa Caucus by 8 votes over Rick Santorum.

Gee. Just fills you with confidence over our 2012 chances, right?

Anyway...let's get to the down-and-dirty analysis...starting in reverse order.

Jon Huntsman

Huntsman is a fool. You don't ignore the Iowa Caucus if you are running for President. History has shown that winning there (Mike Huckabee) doesn't always send you to the White House...but a poor showing there doesn't help, either. Huntsman should have checked with President Giuliani before deciding to blow off Iowa to chase votes in another, later primary state. Huntsman will get blasted in South Carolina, and he will be out.

Michele Bachmann

I have to admit to a soft spot for the Minnesota Congresswoman. I identify strongly with her ideologically, and could have supported her, but I felt she had a very thin resumé with very few accomplishments. She is tough, and a fighter... but sometimes your own personal passions are not enough to carry you to an election victory, as I have learned myself. I think Michele raised her profile and she should go back to Minnesota and run for Senator or Governor. I would love to see her take Al Frankens Senate seat in 2014.

Rick Perry

My own personal choice for the 2012 GOP nomination did not do well in Iowa. Rick Perry spent millions on TV ads, yet got poor results. His campaign has been hampered by the poor debate showings, which caused many to abandon him for other candidates. However, he is still viable because of his financial backing. Santorum and Gingrich are both almost broke and it will be difficult for them to continue on through all 50 states. Perry has the financial strength to continue this campaign. But he needs to finish near the top in South Carolina, or I think he will be done.

Newt Gingrich

Gingrich is still a viable candidate, and if he can survive to land more knockout blows in further debates, he will be OK. But this fourth place showing in Iowa did not help. Gingrich is still the most talented candidate and the biggest threat to Obama. Voters will have to overlook a mountain of baggage to make him their choice, though.

Ron Paul

Crazy old "Uncle Ron" continues to perplex the Republican establishment by refusing to go away. Ron Paul will not be the 2012 GOP Nominee. His foreign policy opinions are considered too dangerous to national security for far too many of the 2012 primary voters. He will plod along all the way to the GOP National Convention, piling up delegates, and then he will make a nice speech before the real nominee gets to the stage. His supporters will make a big noise in Tampa, but that will be it for Ron Paul.

Rick Santorum

To be honest, I don't know a lot about this former Senator from Pennsylvania. I had written him off from the start because he had lost badly as an incumbent Senator in 2006. But I agree with him on many issues. I think Iowa tends to vote for very strong anti-abortion candidates. They did it for Mike Huckabee in 2008, and they did it again last night with Rick Santorum.

Could Santorum go all the way and become President? Maybe. I don't know. But I do know that Iowa has catapulted Santorum into the top 3 just like they did for Mike Huckabee in 2008. Huckabee stayed near the top for the rest of that election and went to the Convention in St. Paul with a lot of delegates, but just not enough of them to win. At least for the rest of this primary season, Santorum is here to stay.

Santorums speech last night was amazing. It was so good that I rewound the DVR and watched it two more times. This guy is good. Very good. Maybe not as good as the Big Mouth in the White House....but he can definitely hang out on the same playing field.

I found myself very moved, emotionally, by his speech...and I don't even know anything about this guy. But Iowans obviously do. Santorum spent months shaking hands and attending small social gatherings with only a few dozen people in attendance. He did this the hard way...and he deserves this result. Congratulations to him and his team. But having said that, it leads us to....

Mitt Romney

I have made clear my disdain for this abortion and socialized-medicine-loving liberal from Massachusetts. I do not want him to be our candidate, but some in our party do. They see him as a sanitized moderate who won't offend anyone and won't make any mis-steps on the way to the White House. He is seen as the "safe" candidate for our party to choose.

God help us if we keep thinking this way.

The problem with Romney is that he really doesn't give anyone a specific reason to vote for him. And I think that could spell 2008 all over again in 2012.

Having said that, I acknowledge that Romney has been running for President for 6 years and has been building up the connections and endorsements you need to win a nomination. I think that with this win in Iowa, combined with his big win in New Hampshire next week that he is 75% of the way there for the nomination. He would have to stumble badly to blow it at this point. And I don't see that happening.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

The Man From Paint Creek

Today has finally arrived. The Iowa Caucus is here and we begin the selection process to decide who will be the candidate to try and replace Barack Obama in the White House. I'm guessing that Tim Pawlenty is filled with regret right now for dropping out so early in the race.

No, Tim Pawlenty won't be the choice today. Neither will Herman Cain.

Today is kind of a make-or-break moment for some of the GOP Presidential candidates.

Those who finish near the bottom in Iowa will find little reason to continue their campaign.

Polls are saying that Ron Paul and Mitt Romney are leading, and it is highly likely that one of them will win the Iowa Caucus. I have a strong suspicion that it will be Ron Paul to win today. A Caucus is very different than an election. There are no voter lists or messy registration papers to deal with. All you have to do is cram a bunch of your supporters into a meeting hall and shout and scream that you support a certain candidate. To be quite honest, that is exactly what Ron Paul supporters are good at. In fact, when it comes to fanatical support, it is very difficult to top them.

Mitt Romney will do well. "Mr. 25%" rarely goes above or drops below a certain support level in the polls. He's not exciting, but for many voters, he will do.

I think that Jon Huntsman and Michele Bachmann will be dropping out soon enough. Their support is minimal, and barring some unusual surprise, tonight should be a very somber moment for them.

Me? I'm staying with the man from Paint Creek. Sure, Rick Perry bungled a few answers at the debates. But he has also been repeatedly re-elected Governor of Texas. He has been the steady captain of the worlds 13th largest economy. And he has made Texas such a desirable place to do business in that people are moving there in droves.

He helped create a positive situation for job growth, which is exactly what this election is going to be all about in 2012.

When it comes to guessing what type of leader these candidates would be, there are some clear facts out there on Rick Perry.

Unlike the other choices, we don't have to guess what type of leader Rick Perry will be if he goes to the White House.

We already know.

Sunday, January 1, 2012