Friday, February 4, 2011

CD 12 Race Analysis

I said I would get to it the other day...and here it is.

I was finally able to watch the video I put up the other day of the CD 12 forum.
A hat tip to Michael N. Cohen for running around and doing such a good job of taping these events.

Let's go through the candidates...and the order that I have come up with is their likelihood of victory in this election in March.

Mitch Englander

This election is basically Englanders to win or lose. He was Greig Smith's Chief of Staff and has worked with many organizations in the district. In fact, he has so much of a lead, I would call him a "semi-incumbent".
Englander also has massive funds to pay for mailers and advertising. The others face an uphill struggle against Mitch.

Kelly Lord

A neighborhood council President, Lord has some backing from the folks at "Clean Sweep".
He seems polished and might be able to give Englander a run. But he will need more funding.

Brad Smith

Among the challengers in the video, I was impressed with Brad Smith. When he said that this election "is not a coronation" it was a pretty powerful slap at Englander. If Smith was smart, he would play up the fact that he has the same surname as the Council Member at the moment. He should have all his campaign materials just say "Smith for Council". Could help him a lot.

Armineh Chelebian

Armineh is a nice lady and I've met her personally. She has run for office several other times without being successful. I think she will eventually win elected office, but I think maybe she needs to start smaller, with a LAUSD or Community College Board election.

Dinesh "Danny" Lakhanpal

I sat near Danny Lakanpahl at a forum for the Clean Sweep people. Voters repeatedly said they couldn't understand him. I don't think he is a good public speaker and I don't give him much of a chance in this election.

Navraj "Singh" Singh

Mr. Singh is well known in Valley politics, having run for office before. He might be a good Republican, but unfortunately he is a Sikh who is running for office in a country that is primarily Christian.
I don't think voters are ready for that right now.